|
|
|
|
|
Analysis:
Splits emerging in Somali Islamist movement |
BODY:
Much recent analysis about the Islamic
courts in Mogadishu has focused on the
political and military strength of the
courts. The Union of Islamic Courts is often
portrayed as a monolithic juggernaut about
to crush all opposition and rivals
especially the weak transitional government
based in Baidoa. Some analysts even predict
the courts may soon overthrow the interim
government and take over power.
Ideological fault lines
What is missing from much of the discussion
on the courts is the ideological divisions
within the Islamist movement in Somalia,
which have the potential to sap their
current strength and worse, provoke another
round of bloodletting - only this time
between the adherents of the various
ideological strands of modern political
Islam.
An ideological battle is being fought far
from the public eye and the stage is now set
for a clash between two contending visions
of Islam.
Recent developments in Mogadishu indicate
the new calm in Mogadishu could, indeed, be
the calm before the storm.
The ideological divisions within the
Islamist groups, were masked by the fact
they had a common enemy - the warlords. Now
that the warlords have been ousted, and the
clans have switched their allegiance to the
Islamists, these divisions are becoming
noticeable.
The swift installation of Shaykh Dahir Aweys
as the de facto head of the Islamic courts
and the apparent sidelining of Shaykh Sharif
Shaykh Ahmad, the soft-spoken moderate
cleric, is the clearest sign of a power
struggle and tension between the Salafist
and the Qutubist tendencies within the
Islamist movement in Somalia.
Aweys and Sharif
Dahir Aweys, an ex-army colonel and a
veteran of 1977 Ogaden War, is widely
believed to be the genius behind the
brilliant military campaign by the Islamic
courts militia against the warlords in
Mogadishu. While Aweys was plotting and
conducting the military campaign in secret,
Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmad, a
Sudanese-trained secondary school teacher
and cleric, was slowly carving a niche for
himself in the international media as the
acceptable face of political Islam in
Somalia. What, however, is only mentioned in
whispers, is the ideological rift between
the two men and their supporters.
Aweys has no formal training as an Islamic
cleric. His conversion to radical political
Islam occurred sometime in the early 90's
when he and like-minded former officers in
the Somali National Army and intellectuals
joined the Al-Ittihad al-Islami (the Islamic
Union). Al-Ittihad's ideology and membership
was heterogeneous. It brought together all
the various strains of modern political
Islam, just like the Islamic courts in
Mogadishu in their early formative years.
Salafism
Since the defeat of the Al-Ittihad by
Ethiopian forces and militiamen loyal to the
Puntland leader Abdullahi Yusuf in mid-90's,
Aweys retreated to his home region of
central Somalia and later Mogadishu and
embarked on a period of self-education and
spiritual reflection, which, many say,
eventually led him to the puritanical Salafi
ideology.
This ideology, which is an off-shoot of the
Wahhabi school, seeks to promote a
"stripped-down" version of the Islamic faith
that emphasizes ritual purity and frowns
upon all forms of bid'a (modern
innovations). It is this aversion to all
forms of modern entertainment that explains
the recent violent crackdown by the Islamic
courts on cinema halls showing the World
Cup. The Salafi ideology regards TV and
sports as "Lahw" (vulgar pasttimes). Also
because of its Wahhabist roots, Salafism is
opposed to rationalism and is virulently
anti-modernist.
The Salafists favour a rigid and literal
interpretation of Islamic texts and regard
other Muslim sects as deviants. Salafis
teach against compromise, and violent jihad
is the central pivot around which their
metaphysics revolve.
Many of the over-zealous Islamist gunmen who
have in recent days been terrorizing and
killing innocent civilians watching the
World Cup in various cinema halls in
Mogadishu and in central Somalia, are
influenced by the Salafi ideology.
It is interesting that the Aweys faction of
the Islamic courts has not yet come out
categorically to condemn these acts. The
line by Aweys is that these are
unpremeditated acts or "accidents". He has
not yet made any formal public statement to
denounce the violence and say people can
watch the World Cup on TV.
Speaking to HornAfrik on 5 July after
Islamic courts militia gunned down two
people in the central region of Dhuusa
Marreeb, Aweys failed to clearly condemn the
action by the militia. He merely stated that
the killing was an "accident" and the
perpetrators would face the shari'ah laws.
This apparent ambivalence is bound to
further increase suspicions he may be the
mastermind of what looks increasingly like a
violent campaign to rapidly "Islamize" the
country.
Those with an intimate understanding of the
Salafi creed say the stance by Aweys on this
bewildering opposition to sports and TV is
consistent with its teachings, namely, the
notion that any pasttime is a distraction
from worship.
Qutubism
The other main counter-current to Salafism
in Somalia is Qutubism. As the name
suggests, this ideology owes its birth to
the Egyptian Islamist thinker Sayyid Qutub,
executed in 1966. The principle text of
Qutubism is the political commentary of the
Holy Koran which Sayyid Qutub wrote in
prison called "Fi Zilal al-Quran" (In the
Shade of the Koran). This commentary and
other writings by Qutub form the theoretical
basis for the ideology which seeks to
reconcile Islam and modernity. Qutub's
vision is less atavistic than the Salafist
vision and his critique of modern Western
civilization is, in the main, not too
extreme.
His followers have since refined the
ideology, drawing on the works of many Sunni
Islamist thinkers like Abul Ala Maududi of
Pakistani. Islamist groups that embrace
moderate versions of Qutubism, like the
Islamic Brotherhood of Egypt, favour
engagement, compromise and moderation to
achieve their goals.
In the last few years, Shaykh Sharif Shaykh
Ahmad, an Abgal cleric, has emerged as the
principle proponent of Qutubism in Somalia.
He has spoken in favour of engagement with
the West and with the transitional
government based in Baidoa. He has stated he
is opposed to the creation of a Taleban-style
government. In many of the interviews,
Sharif has made it clear he favours a
gradual approach in consolidating the power
of the Islamic courts rather than the
Islamization blitzkrieg favoured by Aweys.
In an interview with the pro-Islamist Somali
website Goobjoog on 20 May, Sharif was clear
he favoured dialogue with the interim
government and a democratic settlement to
the crisis in Somalia.
He is widely respected in the country for
his keen intellect and piety, but in a
militaristic society where power still flows
from the barrel of the gun, it is difficult
to see how he can become a powerful player
in the new dispensation. Although regarded
as the spokesman of the Islamic courts,
everyone knows that the real power lies with
Hasan Dahir Aweys.
Ethiopia
Aweys appears determined to sideline Shaykh
Sharif and stamp his own Salafi vision on
the Union of Islamic Courts. He is also
determined to spread the influence of the
courts across Somalia and establish an
Islamic state.
Aweys remembers the bloody military
campaigns in Puntland and southwestern
Somalia in the 90's in which Al-Ittihad was
routed by the Ethiopians and the man who now
heads the transitional federal government of
Somalia - Abdullahi Yusuf. The animus
between the two men runs deep because of
this history and Aweys may capitalize on his
new-found power to make things very
difficult for Abdullahi Yusuf.
In a recent BBC Somali Service interview,
Aweys declined to clearly state whether he
recognized the interim government based in
Baidoa despite being pressed to do so by the
interviewer. In the same interview, Aweys
also voiced his support for the idea of
Greater Somalia, by claiming
Ethiopia-occupied Somali territory.
This bellicose rhetoric by Aweys has already
heightened tension with Ethiopia. Somali
media have in recent days been awash with
reports of Ethiopian military incursions and
although Addis Ababa has refused to admit
this, many analysts believe Ethiopia has
significantly stepped up its military
presence in Somalia.
Tension
This troubling picture in Mogadishu is
further complicated by inter-clan rivalries,
mainly between the Ayr, the Mudulod and the
Abgal clans, as well as the apparent
resurgence of the traditional mainstream
Sunni sects that are jostling for influence
and creating their own Islamic courts in a
bid to counter the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).
A report published in the Shabeelle Media
Network on 5 July suggests tension is rising
in Mogadishu again, especially in Bermuda,
and violent clashes may break out between
the rival Islamic groups competing with one
another in setting up Islamic courts.
Backlash
At the moment, Aweys needs Sharif to mollify
and soften the critics of the courts at home
and abroad, but a major falling out is
inevitable at some stage in the near future.
Indeed, Shaykh Sharif recently hinted at
resigning in an interview with the
London-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat on 7 June,
something which surprised many.
The Islamists are fast squandering the
public goodwill they earned since they
ousted the hated warlords. The honeymoon is
now over for the courts. The simmering
ideological rift threatens to turn nasty and
the violent campaign against so-called
anti-Islamic behaviours is quickly
alienating the public. In Somalia's chaotic
and fluid political landscape, a major
backlash against the courts cannot be ruled
out.
Source: BBC Monitoring research in English 6
Jul 06
LOAD-DATE: July 6, 2006
|
|
|
|
|
