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Truth, ‘Technicalities’
and a Bully’s Brouhaha |
Ogaden
Online Staff
Oct 27, 2006
With myriad of
excuses ranging from ‘helping’ the Somali
government to confronting ‘terror’, Ethiopia
has illegally deployed thousands of its
illiterate and unpaid militias in many parts
of Somalia. Instead of helping the Somali
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as
claimed by the head of the morally bankrupt
regime in Addis Ababa, Mr. Meles Zenawi, the
presence of armed Ethiopian military
personnel has so far accomplished three
intended goals.
Many including Ogaden Online political
analysts in the horn of Africa, inherently
believe that the three objectives, all of
which have not an iota to do with helping
the TFG, were and still are the raison
d’etre of the illegal deployment and
presence of Ethiopian militias deep inside
Somali territory.
Chief among the deployment objective is the
continued maintenance of Ethiopian influence
over the TFG at all costs. It is no secret
that many of the defeated Somali warlords
existed for the sole purpose of serving
Ethiopian interests in Somalia.
The military defeat of these warlords by the
Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) dealt a heavy
blow to Ethiopia’s hegemonic interests and
its open access to many parts of the Somali
republic such as the capital Mogadishu.
Since these warlords cannot militarily come
back to the Somali republic, and the TFG can
not behave like the warlords then it became
inevitable to bring in Ethiopian troops
inside Somalia to not only bully the TFG but
also to maintain Ethiopian influence.
Anyone with a modicum of understanding of
the long Ethio-Somali history will attest to
the fact that the presence of armed
Ethiopian military personnel whatever their
motive is only adds fuel to the long burning
fire of hostilities between these two
nations.
The head of the autocracy in Addis Ababa is
fully aware of this history however the
sending of his military into Somalia is
intended to accomplish the second objective,
which is to associate the TFG forever with
Ethiopia.
Armed Ethiopian militias ‘protecting’ the
TFG create an immovable wedge between the
TFG and the Somali nation it is supposed to
serve. This also makes the TFG subservient
to Zenawi’s machinations whatever they might
be.
Militarily, Zenawi and his military ilk know
that Baidoba is not defendable. They know
that supplying the troops through the air
through prolonged periods of time is not
visible. They also understand that while the
Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)
fighters control most of the roads in Ogaden,
supplying the troops deployed deep in
Somalia is an impossible task.
Furthermore they comprehend full well that
so long as the majority of the Somali people
are against anyone allied with Ethiopia,
Ethiopian military campaigns whatever name
they are given are bound to fail. However
they, Zenawi and his ilk, believe that
sending the military to Somalia in the name
of helping the TFG accomplishes the third
and the most important goal.
The third objective is multifold. First it
is to demonize the UIC through the use of
press releases with catchy words such as ‘Jihadist’.
It is to send open invitations to the
Western press for a candid chat with Zenawi.
The recent upsurge of the availability of
Zenawi and his openness to talk about
anything to do with Somalia as if he is the
Somali premier reveals this strategy is
already at work.
Secondly this objective articulates the
provocation of the UIC through brief
military skirmishes. Ethiopian capture and
the haste retreat from Buur Hakaba shows
that this planned objective has already been
put to good use. Militarily the capture of
Buur Hakaba does not make sense however it
annoyed the UIC, which responded by sending
thousands of its troops to this area.
The UIC also rightly talked about waging
‘Jihad’ against the Ethiopian aggressors.
Zenawi’s propaganda machine and his minister
without portfolio Mr. Bereket Simon latched
on to the declaration of ‘Jihad’ to claim
that Ethiopia is under ‘terror’ threat.
The prolonged talk of ‘imminent’ UIC threat
against Ethiopia is part of this calculated
campaign to drive the cost of convincing the
Americans and the Western world that
Ethiopia should be supported morally,
monetarily, and militarily.
Thirdly, the objective is to discourage the
TFG from ever resolving its differences with
the UIC for the benefit of the Somali
populace. The idea is to beat the drums of
war in order to convince otherwise TFG
members such as the speaker of parliament
and many parliamentarians who believe that
the TFG and the UIC can reconcile their
differences especially through the Khartoum
conference.
To scuttle any possible agreements with the
UIC at the Khartoum conference, Zenawi’s
right-hand man in the TFG Mr. Ali Geedi
successfully implemented this plan by
insisting that the speaker of parliament
does not represent his government when in
fact all three heads of the TFG agreed
months ago that the speaker of parliament
was to be the TFG representative at the
Khartoum conference or any other talk with
UIC.
Fourthly and most importunately the
objective is to engage the UIC militarily
around Baidoba. Zenawi knows that his poorly
trained militias are no match for a
determined enemy with a strong conviction.
His plan for the military engagement with
the UIC is to order an orderly withdrawal of
his militias together with the TFG that they
were supposed to protect back to Ethiopia
proper. He is hoping to host the TFG for
years to come with all the goodies that will
come from the EU and the Arab league.
 When
Mr. Zenawi talks about being "technically"
at war with UIC, what he is implying is that
many do not understand the objectives behind
the supposed ‘war’. Zenawi’s technicalities
are nothing more than a disguised plan to
hijack the Somalia agenda once again and to
make sure that no peace and stability ever
returns to the once proud but now
downtrodden Somalia populace.
Judging by the amount of articles written on
the Somali issue by the Western press, it
appears that he has so far succeeded in
driving the agenda of the TFG however we are
not sure if he will succeed in keeping his
militias engaged in Somalia long enough to
see to fruition all of his implicitly
articulated goals and objectives.
Zenawi talk of ‘imminent war’ of ‘Jihad’
being declared on Ethiopia when his militias
are hundreds of kilometers deep inside
Somalia is nothing more than a bully’s
brouhaha. His, Zenawi’s, tattletales paint
the picture of a bully who has finally found
his match in a playground that he once used
to trot unopposed.
The truth of the matter about Somalia is
that the world community should neither
encourage nor fund Ethiopian aggression
against the Somalia populace. The world
community led by the capable Americans
should realize that the best course of
action in making sure that no terrorists
find a haven in a failed state such as
Somalia is to engage the Somali people
directly.
Siding with Ethiopian agenda against Somalia
not only hinders the realization of peace
and prosperity in Somalia but it might also
fuel a regional war which is easily
ignitable but will have far reaching
security consequences well beyond the Somali
borders.
Ogaden Online Staff
staff@ogaden.com |
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