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Analysis:
TPLF regime Indulging in Delusion |
By Ogaden
Online Editorial
Oct 24, 2007
When news broke out recently of a
successful attack by the Ogaden National
Liberation Front, ONLF on the entourage of
Abay Tsehaye in the city of Wardheer, the
Ethiopian autocracy indulged in humor and
half truths in its defense. At first the
regime vehemently denied that any military
activity took place in Wardheer and its
environs. Then came word from a spokesman of
the misinformation ministry that there 'may'
have been skirmishes in the location in the
ONLF military communique.
Having realized that no one was buying the
regime's denials and worse ONLF was now
providing details of the military encounter
with body count of the Ethiopian military
casualties, the head of the autocracy, Meles
Zenawi, himself addressed the ONLF military
communique in a delusional manner in front
of the puppet Ethiopian parliament. He, Mr.
Zenawi, asked rhetorically how come he was
not surrounded by ONLF as well since he was
with Mr. Tsehaye on the Sunday when the
attack was said to have taken place?
At the time when Mr. Zenawi was engaging in
rhetoric, he knew full well in his heart
that Mr. Tsehaye and his entourage have
escaped miraculously while many in his
military have perished including high
ranking officials. He also knew full well
that the counter attack carried out by
Ethiopian re-enforcements sent from
different parts of Ogaden to Wardheer were
also roundly defeated by well positioned
ONLF units. Zenawi was furious with his
military planners and was also said to have
been saddened by the sheer number of
military casualties including many from his
Tigray clan. His objective in front of the
puppet parliament was to put brave face on a
horrible situation by lashing out on the
media rather than on his own military
planners.
The idea was to change subject and make it
as if it was Western media's fault to report
on the claims of military engagements and
victories claimed by ONLF against the
Ethiopian military. What was remarkable was
that no Western media has fallen for the
autocratic regime's gimmicks and delusional
indulgence. Almost every media house
reported the fact that the regime did not
deny outright the ONLF military engagement
and casualties. What the Western media did
not know at the time was that the engagement
description as provided by ONLF military
communique was correct almost in every bit.
Our reporters have confirmed that Mr.
Tsehaye was at the time in Wardheer meeting
with the local administration on how best to
implement a new policy to conscript and arm
the local population in order to fight
against ONLF. This policy came out a month
ago when the regime's defense military
argued persuasively that its military
personnel were having a hard time
confronting ONLF military forces who
appeared to have had a far superior training
and were more tenacious fighters in the
Ogaden theater of operations. In order to
fight ONLF effectively it was proposed that
conscripting and arming the very civilian
population that the regime suspected to have
been aiding ONLF could help this fight.
Those who proposed this policy claimed that
arming the local population and playing
favorites to some clans while appearing to
marginalizing some could also help. Mr.
Tsehaye was in Wardheer to help implement
this policy.
According to our reporters in Wardheer and
its environs, Mr. Tsehaye was escorted by an
army of about a thousand two hundred. There
were about two hundred military personnel
which were not with Mr. Tsehaye's entourage
but came from Caado village as a
re-enforcement as there were rumors of
imminent ONLF attack on Wardheer. There were
also a locally trained militia allied to the
Ethiopian military whose members numbering
about a hundred and twenty were also asked
to support Mr. Tsehaye's entourage. It is
reported that an ONLF reconnaissance unit in
the vicinity of Jig Jiga was able to get
information about Mr. Tsehaye's itinerary.
This enabled ONLF not only to know when Mr.
Tsehaye was expected in Wardheer but it
allowed them to plan militarily on how to
attack his entourage. It also enabled ONLF
to put in place a large military force in
the vicinity of Wardheer. What saved Mr.
Tsehaye and appears to have prevented ONLF
from harming or even capturing him is the
fact that the reconnaissance unit in Jig
Jiga missed in its relay the fact that the
helicopter that was bringing Mr. Tsehaye was
to remain grounded in Wardheer for the
duration of the visit.
ONLF units that overwhelmed the large
military escort accompanying Mr. Tsehaye
intended to take him prisoner having thought
that he would have no way of escaping via
the air once they defeat his military
escort. Having heard the defeat of the
Ethiopian military personnel and its allied
local militia in the outskirts of Wardheer,
Mr. Tsehaye and a few high ranking Tigrian
People's Liberation Front, TPLF, personnel
escaped using the helicopter that was parked
in the main military garrison. Our reporters
in the area confirm that many of the high
ranking military officers leading this large
military units were killed in the ONLF
attack which is what many believe infuriated
Zenawi the most as many were related to him.
Sources within Zenawi's office confirm that
he has personally ordered immediate
re-enforcements to the area. It is reported
it is the re-enforcements who have been
handily defeated by ONLF military traps and
carefully laid out mines. The traps were
said to have been laid further away from
Wardheer and the Ethiopian reinforcements
encountered them in areas where they hardly
expected hence the large number of
casualties claimed by ONLF since yesterday.
According to our sources within the regime,
the plan for the next couple of days is to
acknowledge the fight took place in Wardheer
but to claim that it was between ONLF and
local militias as if to make it look like
the local civilians are or were resisting
ONLF on their own.
Military experts in the horn interviewed for
this analysis who did not want to be on the
record contend that this recent Ethiopian
military failure in the hands of an ONLF
force numbering in the high hundreds in one
place is likely to further demoralize not
only the Ethiopian military personnel
involved but also the TPLF leadership. They
add that having blockaded the entire Ogaden
for the past six months and still having
encountered an ONLF force not only numbering
in the high hundreds but also being heavily
armed helps those in the regime who
counseled against the Ogaden blockade in the
first place.
editorial@ogaden.com
Ogaden Online Editorial
Oct 24, 2007 |
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