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Ethiopia
Faces Ethnic Fallout from Somalia Intervention |
June 5, 2007
By
Andrew McGregor
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Ethiopian
Prime
Minister
Meles Zenawi |
During the month of
May, Ethiopia faced
a series of attacks
from its own
ethnic-based rebel
groups. The attacks
come as a
consequence of its
invasion of Somalia
last December, as
the groups are
attempting to take
advantage of the
Ethiopian army's
entanglement. The
U.S.-backed
government of
Ethiopian Prime
Minister Meles
Zenawi now faces a
new phase of armed
resistance in the
Muslim Ogaden
region, which
occupies nearly a
third of modern
Ethiopia and is home
to four million
ethnic Somalis. The
recent discovery of
substantial oil and
mineral resources in
the Ogaden region
has complicated an
already
long-standing
dispute over the
territory's status.
In the Ogaden, China
and Malaysia are
intent on
reproducing their
success in
dominating Sudan's
oil industry.
The Coptic Christian
Amhara and Tigrean
ethnic groups form
40% of Ethiopia's
population and have
traditionally formed
the power base for
the Ethiopian
government. Zenawi's
Tigray People's
Liberation Front (TPLF)
is the leading
element in the
coalition
government, known as
the Ethiopian
People's
Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF).
In May 2005, the
EPRDF reassessed the
results of a general
election in which
the regime was
apparently defeated.
The recount resulted
in an EPRDF
majority, and
opposition to the
result was
ruthlessly
repressed.
Opposition forces
regularly point out
that most senior
government positions
are in Tigrean
hands, even though
Tigreans represent
only six percent of
Ethiopia's
population of 75
million.
Political violence
has afflicted the
Ogaden region since
its conquest by
Ethiopia in the late
19th century.
Ethiopia is
determined to avoid
a repetition of the
Ogaden War of
1977-78, which began
when Somali dictator
Siad Barre committed
four mechanized
brigades in support
of ethnic-Somali
separatists in the
Ogaden. An airlift
of military
equipment and
aircraft from the
Soviet Union and the
deployment of 10,000
Cuban regulars
allowed the
Ethiopians to repel
the invasion after
more than a year of
intense fighting.
Today, the armed
resistance is led by
the Ogaden National
Liberation Front (ONLF).
The Ethiopian
government's
presence in the
Ogaden has been
almost entirely
military in nature
since its conquest,
with little effort
extended to develop
the region. Ogaden
human rights groups
complain of the
brutal military rule
that has disrupted
traditional social
systems and
devastated the local
economy (Ogaden
Human Rights
Committee, Press
Release, April 29).
The government has
also been accused of
mismanaging local
wildlife resources,
exploiting limited
water resources and
allowing the
charcoal industry to
raze the region's
forests. The people
of the Ogaden have
also been denied a
voice in the
development of
promising mineral
and petroleum
deposits. Contracts
are negotiated in
Addis Ababa, and the
exploration
companies arrive
with large
detachments of
government troops.
Last November,
Swedish oil company
Lundin Petroleum was
warned by the ONLF
that its exploration
activities in the
Ogaden were "both
unrealistic and
unwelcome." The ONLF
advised foreign
exploration
companies that
Ethiopia does not
control the Ogaden
and that their
security guarantees
are worthless (Afrol
News, November 14,
2006). Malaysia and
India, likewise,
have oil exploration
firms active in the
Ogaden region.
On April 24, the
ONLF's "Dufaan"
commando unit
attacked a
well-guarded
Chinese-managed oil
exploration site
near Obala in the
northern Ogaden
region, resulting in
the deaths of 65
Ethiopian soldiers.
Nine Chinese workers
were killed while a
further seven were
abducted "for their
own safety," but
released a week
later (ONLF
Communiqué, April
24). After the
attack, Ethiopia's
parliament blamed
the ONLF's backers
in Asmara, accusing
the Eritrean regime
of engaging in
"international
terrorism
activities"
(Ethiopian News
Agency, May 10).
According to rebel
sources, the ONLF
followed up its
oil-field attack by
taking the town of
Kefalo on May 15
(http://www.oromoliberationfront.org).
The ONLF accuses
Prime Minister
Zenawi of currying
favor from Western
states by presenting
himself as an ally
in the "war on
terrorism" and by
suggesting that the
ONLF has ties to
al-Qaeda. The ONLF
denies using
terrorism,
emphasizing that the
movement restricts
itself to attacking
only legitimate
targets of the
regime.
The ONLF has entered
into an alliance
with the Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF)
to confront
"Abyssinian
colonialists."
Unlike the Somalis
of the Ogaden, the
indigenous Oromos
have mixed with
their Amharic
neighbors since the
17th century. Today,
Oromos can be found
in all parts of
Ethiopia and many
modern Ethiopians
are at least part
Oromo. Not all
Oromos support the
creation of an
independent
"Oromia"—the Oromo
People's Democratic
Organization remains
part of the EPRDF
ruling coalition.
With nearly equal
numbers of Coptic
Christian and
Muslims (and a small
Protestant
minority), the Oromo
movement is
nationalistic rather
than religious in
character. The OLF
encourages all of
Ethiopia's disparate
opposition groups to
join a new umbrella
group, called the
Alliance for Freedom
and Democracy.
Rebel reports claim
that a joint OLF/ONLF
operation in the
Ogaden's Warder
province killed 82
government soldiers
and wounded a
further 75 during
six days in May
(Voice of Oromo
Liberation, May 17).
The Ethiopian
government denied
these reports,
describing them as
simple attempts to
gain media attention
(Daily Monitor
[Addis Ababa], May
23).
Ethiopia is
following an
ambitious long-term
project to become a
major East African
energy supplier
through oil exports,
to construct five
major hydroelectric
dams and to provide
a connection between
the North African
and South African
power grids. In the
meantime, the Zenawi
government depends
on U.S. support for
its survival. The
armed resistance has
perceived a window
of opportunity, as a
large number of
Ethiopian troops and
military resources
remain engaged in
Somalia and are
unable to withdrawal
without the arrival
of a larger African
Union peacekeeping
force than the 1,500
Ugandans already
deployed.
Despite the TPLF
regime's
characterization of
opposition movements
as "terrorist" in
nature, neither the
ONLF nor the OLF
appear on the U.S.
or EU lists of
designated terrorist
organizations. These
movements have been
joined in their
opposition to the
regime by other
ethnic-based
opposition groups,
including the Afar
National Democratic
Front, the Tigray
People's Democratic
Movement (TPDM) and
the Ethiopian
People's Patriotic
Front (Amhara). The
TPDM claims to have
inflicted 127
Ethiopian government
casualties in a May
7 battle in the
Tigrean homeland in
northwest Ethiopia
(Voice of the Broad
Masses of Eritrea,
May 12). Many of
these groups receive
support from the
TPLF's enemies in
Eritrea.
Zenawi is currently
faced with a
dilemma: with no
sign of AU
reinforcements for
Somalia, his U.S.
sponsors are
demanding that the
Ethiopian army
remain in Mogadishu
despite the
desperate need for
these troops at
home.
* Dr.
McGregor is
the director
of Aberfoyle
International
Security
Analysis in
Toronto,
Canada.
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http://jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373448
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