By F. Hager
Oct 15, 2997

A US-backed Ethiopian attack of Eritrea could come any day.

Ethiopia’s ruling Tigrai Liberation Front (TPLF) would like us to believe Eritrea is threatening Ethiopian sovereignty. In truth, the war is a grand strategy to divert attention from human rights abuses and to crush all democratic opposition in Ethiopia. Such a strategy will allow the TPLF to stay in power indefinitely.

The push for war also emanates from Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s desire to destroy Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea and to replace him with a compliant Eritrean government. Under this scenario, Zenawi will emerge as the uncontested strongman and a regional power broker.

An impoverished Ethiopia cannot afford yet another war. If the last war is any indication, 100,000 or more could be killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. In financial terms, the war can easily cost anywhere from 10 to 12 billion birr.

Now is the time for Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia to speak up against this war.

Why Ethiopians should not support Zenawi’s war

It is immoral. Ethiopia still cannot feed itself and every year the government goes begging for international handouts. It is therefore unconscionable for two of the poorest countries in the world to waste their human and financial resources to keep a minority elite in power.

There is no good reason for Ethiopia to invade Eritrea. One could endlessly debate who is worse -- Meles Zenawi or Isaias Afewerki. But Zenawi had no qualms about pushing for Eritrea to break away from Ethiopia or sign away Badme after so much bloodshed. But now that his ego is being challenged, he wants to start a war.

Unproven charges. Zenawi claims Eritrea is undermining Ethiopian sovereignty. Once again, these are just allegations. He provides no proof. Unlike previous Ethiopian leaders, Zenawi was quick to strike a deal that made a nation of 70 million people landlocked. Why? It served his purpose of coming to power at the time.

Changing colors. Once in power, Zenawi began to double-cross his Eritrean mentor, Isaias Afewerki. The one-time rebel, Albanian-style Marxist Zenawi has turned into a regional snitch at the service of a big power – a snitch quick to accuse the hands that fed him. Why? Because he smells a lot of money and the opportunity to stay in power.

Ethiopians need to think this war through
Political opposition. Pro-democracy forces in Ethiopia need to carefully think through issues surrounding this looming war and not fall into Zenawi’s trap of defending the motherland. They have to be clear that this is not Ethiopia’s war, but an optional war waged by a minority regime to confuse the issues and stay in power.

The Ethiopian military. The patriotic armed forces also need to think this war through. Young Ethiopians are being killed in the streets of Mogadishu to serve Zenawi’s agenda. The lesson learnt from the 1998-2000 war with Eritrea is that 70,000 Ethiopians were sacrificed and hundreds of thousands wounded for no good reason.

Disfavored ethnic groups such as Oromos and Amharas were callously used for cleaning minefields. We all remember the bodies of young Ethiopian soldiers unceremoniously left on the battlefield to be devoured by vultures. As is customary with the TPLF, the dead and wounded were used and immediately forgotten – never to be mentioned again. Zenawi quickly agreed to hand over Badme – the flashpoint over which the war started.

Financial cost. Ethiopia wasted over 8 billion birr on the last Eritrean war. Imagine if that 8 billion was used to build dams that will irrigate Ethiopian farms. Imagine an Ethiopia that can feed itself, an Ethiopia that is not a beggar nation and a burden to the world.

Unfortunately, the TPLF’s knee jerk reaction to any crisis is to employ propaganda first and then follow that up with brute force. Such has been the pattern for the last sixteen years.

Why does Zenawi want to start a war?
He sold himself to the West as a budding, well-intentioned African democrat. The propaganda has turned out to be a lie. He has proven to be more autocratic than the Burmese junta or Robert Mugabe who is conveniently vilified by the Bush administration.

Zenawi’s democracy has no place for the separation of the judicial and executive branches. The twenty-month trial of pro-democracy opposition forces elevated the meaning of Kangaroo court to new heights.

Zenawi never gained the respect of the Ethiopian people. Whatever credibility he had came from foreigners. Now even foreigners have come to see the true colors of the Prime Minister. The TPLF capo really has no cloth.

It is under these circumstances that Zenawi is choosing to go to war. He is also afraid Eritrea will give sanctuary to opponents running away from persecution by the regime’s secret services.

Zenawi, the Ahmed Challabi of the Horn of Africa, is feeding the United States lies about Eritrea as he did about Somalia prior to the invasion. He wants to entangle the US in his squabbles and to underwrite his adventures. Emperor Yohannes would roll over in his graves if he new an Ethiopian leader had become a puppet mercenary of foreign powers.

Neither Somalis nor Eritreans are the real enemies of the Ethiopian people. The number one enemy is the ruling minority Tigrai Liberation Front. And, as such, all efforts should go to liberating Ethiopia from this secretive and evil force.


The writer can be reached at hagerfikir2@gmail.com

Related Article: Is an Ethiopian Invasion of Eritrea Imminent? By F. Hager