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Is an Ethiopian Invasion of Eritrea Imminent? |
By F. Hager
September 15, 2007
Now that the Millennium celebrations are
over, Ethiopia appears ready to attack
Eritrea with tacit US backing.
Over 100,000 people were slaughtered the
last time these two countries fought a war
in 1998 – 2000. This time, the death and
destruction as well as the long term
dislocation and suffering could be worse.
U.S. takes sides
Incomprehensibly, the Bush administration is
fanning the flames and taking sides in a
tribal war between two dictators. Current
U.S. policy in Africa appears to be dictated
more by the force of personalities than
strategic principles.
Africa is rarely high on the U.S. agenda.
So, important decisions are relegated to
low-level political appointees.
Inexperienced diplomats such as Jendayi
Frazer are easily manipulated by
fast-talking African dictators such as Meles
Zenawi. Frazer’s singular legacy so far is
the debacle in Somalia.
Meles Zenawi – the Ahmed Challabi of the
Horn of Africa
Just as in Iraq, the U.S.-backed invasion of
Somalia was based on false intelligence and
assumptions. Now it’s about to be repeated
in Eritrea. Just as Ahmed Challabi fed US
lies about weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq, Meles Zenawi fabricated stories about
Somalia being a haven for terrorists.
The invasion of Somalia was waged to capture
or kill three terrorists Meles claimed were
hiding in Mogadishu. The three fugitives
were wanted for the 1998 U.S. embassy
bombing in Nairobi. None of these terrorists
were captured or killed. Yet, some 5,000
Somalis have been killed, thousands wounded
and some 400,000 made homeless.
Zenawi and his generals got paid handsomely.
Ethiopia’s ruling cabal has one simple
over-arching agenda: to ensure their
minority rule over 70 million Ethiopians.
They have managed to impose their rule
through mass arrests, disappearances and
killings that amount to war crimes. In
return for their services in the so-called
war against terror, the Bush administration
has condoned the murderous activities of
Ethiopia’s rulers.
Can Eritrea be a breeding ground for
Islamic extremists?
It will be the ultimate folly and ignorance
to construe the fight among Eritreans and
Tigreans as one between supporters and
opponents of Islamic extremism.
Isaias Afewerki’s government is a secular,
nationalist/leftist government. The Eritrean
population is roughly half Moslem and half
Christian. But political leadership has
traditionally been dominated by the
Christians. If anything, a Moslem upheaval
is a threat to Eritrea’s current government.
It is therefore absurd to believe that
Eritrea will want to be a breeding ground
for Islamic terrorists, as some ill-informed
American officials assert.
Clearly, Eritrea is supporting Somali
opposition forces opposed to Ethiopia that
happen to be Moslems. Eritrea is also
supporting Ethiopian opposition forces that
are secular and fighting Tigrean domination.
The Ethiopian leadership, on the other hand,
has a vested interest in presenting the
fight as one between good and evil – just
the simplistic way the Bush administration
likes it. Zenawi has masterfully manipulated
U.S. obsession with Islamic extremism to
present their clan war with Eritrea as a
fight against terrorism and those harboring
terrorists. In truth, the Tigrian leadership
could care less about the fight against
terrorism. In the 1970s and 80s the Tigrai
Liberation Front (TPLF) group regularly
engaged in terrorist activities such as
kidnapping and murder. So the only permanent
interest the group has is staying in power.
U.S. verbal attack against Eritrea
Jendayi Frazer, the US diplomat in charge of
Africa, is labeling Eritrea a terrorist
haven, creating the psychological climate
for what appears to be a justification for
the invasion of Eritrea.
Frazer’s coddling of Ethiopia’s Zenawi while
blasting Eritrea’s Afewerki is reminiscent
of Donald Rumsfiled’s embrace of Saddam
Hussein and his endorsement of Hussein’s
invasion of Iran. Yet another senseless U.S.
strategic blunder is about to be played out
in the Horn of Africa.
Other US diplomats are busy flattering
Ethiopia’s ruler while attacking Asmara.
“Ethiopia’s political leaders have committed
themselves to a new collaborative
relationship for the good of the country,”
said James Swan, on August 5, 2007. Mr. swan
is the Deputy Assistant Secretary for
African Affairs. He made the remark at the
4th International Conference on Ethiopian
Development Studies Western Michigan
University, Kalamazoo, Michigan.
According to Mr. Swan, “Eritrea has chosen
to support extremist elements, including the
al-Qaida affiliated al Shabaab militia in
Somalia, in an effort to undermine the
political process. While the rest of the
region and the international community have
united behind a common strategy for
achieving lasting peace and stability in
Somalia, Eritrea has opted to support
terrorists and spoilers while encouraging
continued violence. There is no
justification for such actions. The ruling
cabal is – to our great regret -- leading
Eritrea along the path toward increased
domestic repression and hardship, and
regional and international isolation.“
These are serious charges. Charges that
indicate the Bush Administration and the
Ethiopian leadership are working closely to
overthrow the Eritrean government.
Coup d’etat or war?
Ethiopia’s ruling Tigrai Peoples Liberation
Front (TPLF) would engage in such risky
venture only if it believes it can launch a
blitzkrieg similar to the one used in the
invasion of Somalia. But Eritrea is no
Somalia. And there is no guaranty of a
quick, easy victory.
What’s guaranteed, however, is tremendous
human slaughter and suffering of an
unprecedented scale. Hence the need for
people of good will to speak up before yet
another war engulfs two of the poorest
countries in the world.
Ethiopia’s Tigrai Liberation Front could be
entertaining two possible scenarios:
1. Decapitation/ coup d’etat against the
Eritrean leadership; or
2. Outright invasion.
The first scenario is what Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi and his politburo would prefer.
The decapitation can be accomplished with
logistical and intelligence support from the
Israel and the United States.
The Ethiopian leadership has come to the
conclusion that isaias Afewerki is weak and
unpopular; hence easily replaceable.
Afeworki may be unpopular, but it remains to
be seen whether Ethiopia’s Tigrian
leadership could easily orchestrate regime
change in neighboring Eritrea.
The Tigrian leadership brags that the road
to Asmara can be a cakewalk. It has amassed
enough troops on three fronts to engage in a
pincer movement. In addition, some 5,000
highly trained special forces are said to be
on standby to parachute to the environs of
Asmara on short notice.
The preparation for regime change appears to
be in full throttle. Ethiopia is also
training and supporting dissident forces
such as the Eritrean Democratic Alliance.
If a coup d’etat or decapitation of the
Eritrean leadership is not possible, Prime
Minister Zenawi of Ethiopia will have to
resort to a costly invasion. An invasion
will very likely be supported by secret US
air strikes and satellite intelligence.
The US will also provide the disinformation,
demonizing the Eritreans while legitimizing
violence initiated by Ethiopia. As a prelude
to what is in the pipeline, Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs
Jendayi Frazer indicated the US readiness to
label Eritrea a terrorist state. This could
presumably be followed by some UN
resolution, which will then provide a legal
cover for the invasion of Eritrea.
For the Pentagon and its newly minted Africa
Command (AFRICOM) as well as the Department
of State, condoning an invasion may be a
tempting way to reward the Ethiopian
leadership for being good boys. Zenawi and
company have been both the manipulators and
the compliant locals always eager to do any
dirty deed and to please the master. The
invasion of Somalia was a reflection of the
incestuous relationship between the local
tyrants and the Bush administration.
The Ethiopian regime is in trouble
The war in Somalia is going very badly for
the US-backed Ethiopians and the
Transitional Federal “Government”. In the
meantime, international human rights groups
are accusing the Ethiopians and the
Transitional Somali government of war
crimes.
So, the question is, will the TPLF
leadership opt for war on two fronts? As
unlikely as that may seem, the Zenawi group
may opt for war. War, after all, is what the
TPLF knows best.
The TPLF leadership feels a legitimate
threat from Eritrea. It has skillfully
monopolized political and economic power in
Ethiopia for the last 16 years. It managed
to do so by ruthlessly holding down the
local population while manipulating Western
donors into lining its pockets.
Eritrea is now threatening the Tigrian
stranglehold on Ethiopia by harboring
Ethiopian dissidents and Somali forces
opposed to Ethiopia and the fragile
Transitional Government.
Prime Minister Zenawi has masterfully
exploited U.S. fears of Islamic terrorism in
the wake of the September 2001 attacks. He
has promoted himself as an indispensable
American ally in the fight against
terrorism. In return, the Bush
administration has condoned the many crimes
and human rights abuses committed by the
Zenawi regime.
Why does the US condemn Eritrea and not
Ethiopia? Why the moral double standard?
Prime Minister Zenawi and his organization
were once labeled terrorists by the United
States. Apparently, if you do this
administration’s bidding, it does not matter
how heinous your crimes are.
Let’s look at
the highlights of crimes committed by the
Ethiopian regime:
-
Possible war crimes in Somalia.
Indiscriminate shelling of civilians,
hospitals, blocking food convoys, and
the use of white phosphorous chemical
weapons.
- The
genocide currently underway in
Ethiopia’s Ogaden region.
- The
June and November 2005 killings of over
193 people, the arrest of over 40,000
protesting electoral fraud.
-
Upwards of 15,000 killed, tens of
thousands imprisoned in Oromia region.
- Over
425 ethnic Anuaks massacred by Ethiopian
forces in December 2003; some 10,000
made homeless.
Time to speak up
Ethiopia and Eritrea are
among the poorest countries
in the world. Food and
freedom, and not war, are
the real issues. Thousands
of Eritreans are suffering
from food shortages and
economic deprivation. Over
four million Ethiopians need
food assistance.
For the Ethiopian minority
regime, this is a preemptive
war. The cost of the war may
be underwritten by some
American counter-insurgency
slush fund. How about human
lives? The Tigrian group
sacrificed over 50,000 lives
in Eritrea before. It’s now
sacrificing thousands in
Somalia. But since this is a
regime that does not have to
account to its own people,
lives don’t matter.
Where is the morality for a
big power like the US egging
two poor people towards war?
Why the haste to sacrifice
so many black African lives
in the name of some
ill-conceived, dubious
cause.
This is the time for all
people of good will to speak
up against an impending
senseless war.
The
writer can be reached at
hagerfikir2@gmail.com
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