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Warning: Another bloodbath in the coming |
May 17, 2007
Kallacha
Dubbi
Serious observers of the Ethiopian political
panorama, especially the homegrown who can
also do better reading of the Abyssinian
psychic, are unanimous in that Prime
Minister Meles is concocting ‘good’ reasons
to wage another war against Eritrea.
Movement of ground troops and political
debates in the doomed Ethiopian parliament
suggest that this war is very likely to
follow the coming winter which also comes
conveniently after the Ethiopian millennium,
which has captured serious attention of the
Prime Minister. It is unlikely Meles will go
to war before such a big party although the
millennium could be left for honeymoon of
the postwar victory, if the victory can be
assured. A number of reproach strategies
have been adopted by Meles paving the ground
for attack and grooming “logical”
justifications for the possibility of a war.
Blame 1: Afar
In 2003, a group associated with the Afar
Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, (ARDUF)
issued a warning to foreigners not to enter
the Afar region. In early March of 2007,
ARDUF kidnapped a group of five Europeans
and 13 Ethiopians in the Danakil depression,
a remote region of the Afar people. The
ARDUF indubitably admitted that it and no
one else is responsible for the kidnapping.
And yet, few days later, Reuter reported
that “an Ethiopian administrator accused
Eritrean forces of kidnapping” the group. A
British newspaper followed quoting Ethiopian
sources that the kidnapped tourists were
taken “to a military camp near the Eritrean
border.” Another reputed newsletter wrote
that “five British citizens who were
kidnapped in northern Ethiopia have been
spotted at a military camp across the border
in Eritrea, a senior Ethiopian official
said.” By the end of the week it was common
to read about “hostages held in Eritrean
rebel camp.” In twisted propaganda notch,
one newsletter went as far as telling its
readers, that the Afars are almost all Sunni
Muslims, as if this piece has to matter to
rescue the victims. All of a sudden, the
Eritreans were more at the center of the
kidnapping news than the ARDUF, by design of
the official Ethiopian media. Few cared to
know the relevant, for example, that the
ARDUF had kidnapped some Italian tourists as
far back as in 1995, later releasing them,
unharmed. Or the fact that it seeks freedom
and liberty for the Afar people and that an
earlier Afar rebel group, the Afar
Liberation Front (ALF), fought against the
Derg for 17 years. The thrust of the news
ended with accusing Eritrea more than about
liberating the Afar.
Blame 2: Ogaden
On December 23, 2006, the Ogaden National
Liberation Front, (ONLF) claimed to have
attacked an Ethiopian column near
Baraajisale heading to Somalia, destroying 4
of 20 vehicles, inflicting casualties and
driving the convoy back. It also claimed
another attack on Ethiopian soldiers on
January 15, 2007 in Qabri-Dahar, Garbo, and
Fiiq. Five Ethiopian soldiers and one ONLF
rebel were reported killed. Many ONLF
attacks have taken place on Ethiopian
convoys, but the attack which included
Chinese citizens is the only one the Western
medias were interested in, inadvertently
asking more attacks of worthy news. The
attack on the Chinese camp took place in
April, about seven weeks after the Danakil
kidnap. A shoot-out occurred between
Ethiopian soldiers guarding the Chinese
exploratory group and the ONLF. Nine Chinese
oil workers and 65 Ethiopians were killed.
The front claimed full responsibility for
the “rescue”, not an attack, but stated that
the death of the Chinese or Ethiopians was
not intentional.
More of the same complains and charges
ensued by the Ethiopian government as in the
Danakil case. A serious Europe-based news
media reported: “Ethiopia accuses neighbors
of supporting an ethnic Somali rebel group
that attacked a Chinese-run oil installation
this week, killing 74 people.” Then, in a
surprising reverse of the vector, the
Christian Science Monitor suggested “there
is a growing realization that Somalia's
increasingly brutal insurgency is starting
to seep across the Horn of Africa”. This
offered an impression, that the Somali
insurgency against Ethiopia gave rise to the
Ogaden movement. And yet the ONLF, created
in 1984, surely predates the 2006 Ethiopian
occupation of Mogadishu.
AFP added the psychological score for
Ethiopia reporting “Ethiopia on Wednesday
accused arch-foe Eritrea of supporting the
rebels behind an attack on a remote
Chinese-run oil field that killed 74 people,
including nine Chinese workers.” More
uninformed commentary followed: “Ethiopian
analysts say the unprecedented scale of the
attack, claimed by the ONLF, suggested it
could only have been carried out with
support from Islamists in neighboring
Somalia, who were routed by Ethiopian forces
in a two-week, Christmas-time invasion. Some
analysts see this as an indication that the
battle for control of Somalia's capital,
Mogadishu is becoming a regional conflict.”
One starts getting the impression that the
ONLF is a result of Meles’ struggle against
terrorism. What sophistication does it
require to overwhelm badly trained and
poorly armed of Ethiopian guards protecting
unarmed Chinese, only the Christian Monitor
knows. So again, even though ONLF seemed to
have received more attention than the ARDUF,
after all the West should not terribly
dislike an attack against China, but
Ethiopia is still compiling blames against
Eritrea.
I just saw a report on the Ogaden online,
that the ONLF has captured Qalafe town in
the Godey province of Ogaden. I am certain
Meles will blame Eritrea once again.
Blame 3: Somalia
On April, 24 2007, Jendayi Frazer, the
assistant secretary of state for African
affairs, said that “Eritrea was the largest
foreign backer of guerrillas who are
fiercely resisting attempts by Ethiopia and
the Somali government to pacify Mogadishu.”
This paraphrased Ethiopia’s propaganda, that
“Eritrea is fuelling the insurgency in
Somalia in order to wage a proxy war against
Ethiopia”. VOA and AFNEWS also reported that
“Addis Ababa quickly accused Eritrea of
starting a proxy war by backing both the
ONLF and insurgents in Mogadishu. The
government of Eritrea angrily denied the
Ethiopian and U.S. accusations. By then
Prime Minister Meles has transferred the
‘debate’ to the Ethiopian Parliament where a
resolution was assured by the EPRDF
majority, accusing Eritrea and OTHER groups
for supporting Somali insurgents and
‘undermining’ Ethiopia’s peace mission in
Somalia.
The opposition in the doomed parliament
debated long to remove the word “other” from
the resolution, a reference to the banned
Ethiopian opposition groups with connections
to Eritrea. This is the first test of Meles
to the Ethiopian parliament gauging the
reaction to his war plan, and one can bet,
that the vote in the parliament to declare
open war against Eritrea would follow the
same vote ratios – those who opposed the
inclusion of “others” will also oppose the
war, those who supported will also support
the war, so a majority is guaranteed by the
very birth of EPRDF. The test of the
parliament was completed successfully, but
then it was sham to start with.
Blame 4: Oromia
During a series of debates in the parliament
preceding the Ethiopian army attack of
Somalia, Prime Minister Meles listed his
justifications for the attack. One of these
justifications was the famous “third point”,
the presence of “other” unfriendly forces in
Somalia, a term used to refer to opposition
forces including the OLF. Meles’ has
repeatedly proven his willingness to cross a
border hunting for opposition forces, the
OLF in particular. He has crossed to Kenya,
to Somalia, and - Eritrea as his next plan.
On Tuesday this week, the Voice of Oromo
Liberation announced that the OLF army
entered and controlled for 3 hrs a small
town of Bati in north eastern Ethiopia. This
suggests that there is a growing pressure on
the Tigrean domination of Oromia, a pressure
that is sure to culminate on the shoulders
of Meles. Indeed the report also said the
OLF chased the regime’s representatives out
of town and gave warnings to corrupted
administrators. I have little doubt that
Meles will once again blame Eritrea for the
success of the OLF, even though the OLF’s
official media has taken full credit of the
small town mutiny. Alternately, Meles could
simply keep quiet about it, it will not be
the business of the international media
after all - no foreigner is involved.
Blame 5: Eritrea
It is to be recalled that the Boundary
Commission delivered a final report on 21
March 2003 reaffirming its previous
decisions, that “the delimitation decision
was final and binding,” and that having made
its determination it “could not receive
further representations from the parties,
that demarcation could only proceed on the
basis of that decision”. This was precisely
in line with Eritrea’s position and places
the fault for the continued border tension
on Ethiopia’s side. And yet the Ethiopian
army still occupies the territory it lost by
the Algier’s mediation which it went in to
agreement willfully, signing to abide by the
outcome. About 14 years later, the border is
not demarcated, and Ethiopia continues to
blame Eritrea for its own failure to abide
by the international law. The Eritrean
border is held hostage to submit Eritrea to
Tigrean supremacy, and this alone provides
Meles with his rational for a war against
Eritrea, a war that is in the making.
Prime ally for the war: USA
In a recent Foreign Affairs article, John
Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen of the
International Crisis Group argue that
“Washington’s obsession with
counterterrorism in Africa’s Horn is
undermining efforts to bring stability to
the region.” And Meles, a man with one of
the worst human rights records, is now
America’s ally in fighting terrorism.
Ethiopia is investing heavily to swing on
the “unti-terror” pendulum.
On March 26, 2002, O'Dwyer's PR Daily
reported that "Ethiopia spent a whopping
$5.6 million in lobbying fees/expenses at
Verner, Liipfert, Bernhard, McPherson & Hand
during the firm's recent six-month reporting
period". Just recently, Dick Armey, the
Texas Republican and former House majority
leader now works for a lobbying firm DLA
Piper. Armey and DLA Piper registered with
the Justice Department in June 2006 as
lobbyists for the government of Ethiopia, at
a price tag of $50,000 a month. In a sudden
rise to African politics, a little known
university professor named Peter Pham
surprises Africanists and Ethiopiansts with
a bold testimony in support of the Ethiopian
regime as an expert, arguing in favor of
Meles, on the grounds that the alternative
would awash the Horn with terrorism. Alas,
the extravagant reward for lobbyists paid
off in a fashion paid on behalf of corporate
America, scores a point for Ethiopia on the
new DC front. The O'Dwyer's PR Daily report
specifically mentions that the group’s area
of lobbying includes the conflict with
Eritrea.
Gathering diplomacy for the war: Middle
East and the Sudan
In the middle of May, 2007 Prime Minister
Meles visited Kuwait. Durig his visit, he
and his Kuwaiti counterparts, Amir Sheikh Al
Ahmed Al Jaber Al Sabah and the Prime
Minister Sheikh Naser Mohammed Al Sabah
“called for the unity and independence of
Somalia and an end to violence.” The two
leaders also “emphasized the need to resolve
disputes between African nations through
peaceful means.” The must be a calculated
effort to neutralize the Arab support for
Eritrea. Meles knows full well, that the
same countries that supported and sustained
the Eritrean struggle for over 3 decades may
not allow it to fall under Ethiopia’s arms
after independence. Sudan’s full or tacit
support, a country that hosted the
head-quarters of the Eritrean movements and
transited all supports for the liberation
struggle for those decades, must be
critical. So, upon return, Prime Minister
Meles also met with Sudanese Defense
Minister, Lieutenant General Abdelrahim
Mohamed Hussein, and jointly declared that
“multifarious cooperation between the
governments of Ethiopia and Sudan has been
growing.” I have a sense that the above
complains were presented to the Sudan who
has its own Darfur ax to grind, and need not
be pressed much to submit.
Conclusion
The writing on the wall is clear and in
bold. A war is in the making in the Horn,
and it will be a brutal one, a vicious one,
in which more than the previous 70,000 are
to be killed. This war in the making in
front of the worlds eyes, including the
United States, a country that for now seems
to stand by Ethiopia. US and Ethiopian
relationships, especially when such
relationship is sure to cause pain for the
millions, should be revisted for the sake of
innocent lives, if not sincere politics.
This would be consistent with the
humaniterean obligations of this great
country. US has no business in interrogating
“terror suspects in secret Ethiopian
prisons”, when its own country reports
reveal gross human rights abuses of Meles.
As the New York Times objectively stated,
the US should not look the other way when
Ethiopia violats UN sanctions by purchasing
arms from North Korea in prepartion for
agression. Meles must be stopped from making
another stupid and sadistic war.
Nagaan,
KD |
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